FX.co ★ Gold Logs First Monthly Gain Since February

Gold slipped to about $4,040 an ounce on Friday as the US dollar rebounded from its lowest level in more than a month. Despite the pullback, the metal rose roughly 0.5% in July, marking its first monthly gain since February. This advance was underpinned by softer US inflation readings and the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

Upside momentum, however, remained limited by expectations of further monetary tightening, with futures markets assigning roughly a 65% probability to a Fed rate increase in September. Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the Fed’s resolve to bring inflation down but stopped short of signaling an imminent hike. By contrast, the three officials who dissented at this week’s meeting repeated on Friday that additional tightening will be necessary.

At the same time, escalating tensions between the United States and Iran continued to cloud the outlook. Fresh US strikes on Iranian targets have dimmed hopes for a near-term diplomatic breakthrough. Since the conflict flared in late February, higher oil prices have intensified inflation worries and, by reinforcing expectations of higher interest rates, have ultimately weighed on gold.