FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Eases Ahead of Jobs Data

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note eased to around 4.7% on Monday, pulling back from an 18-month high as investors looked ahead to a busy week of labor-market data, capped by Friday’s closely watched monthly US jobs report. Last week, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, though three policymakers dissented, cautioning that delaying action could eventually necessitate more aggressive tightening. Futures markets now imply roughly a 68% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase in September. At the same time, reports suggested that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is considering cutting the number of policy meetings from the current eight per year. Investors have criticized Warsh’s efforts to scale back forward guidance on the likely path of interest rates, while the Fed continues to face growing pressure to do more to curb inflation.