FX.co ★ Arabica Coffee Futures Ease

Arabica coffee futures have swung sharply in recent weeks, before stabilizing below $3.10 per pound, their lowest level in a month. Despite this pullback, prices remain underpinned by tight global supplies, ongoing uncertainty about the quality of Brazil’s harvest, growers’ reluctance to sell, and weather risks linked to El Niño.

While Brazil is expected to produce a record crop of more than 70 million bags this season, the overall balance between supply and demand remains tight, especially for higher‑quality beans. Traders are particularly worried that rains in key producing regions—such as Minas Gerais and São Paulo—during June and July may have undermined the quality of part of the harvest.

Reflecting the supply strain, ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.5‑year low of 251,417 bags as of August 7, a steep drop from 754,516 bags a year earlier. At the same time, Brazilian growers continue to sell their coffee only gradually, further restricting near‑term availability. Looking ahead, the developing “super” El Niño is seen as a major risk factor for next year’s crop.