FX.co ★ US Inflation Expectations Edge Down in July

US median inflation expectations for one year ahead edged down to 3.6% in July 2026 from 3.7% in June, when they had reached their highest level since September 2023. Expectations declined for medical care (by 0.5 percentage point to 8.9%) and rent (by 2.4 percentage points to 5.9%), while remaining unchanged for food (5%) and median home price growth (3.2%). By contrast, consumers now anticipate faster price increases for gas (up 1.4 percentage points to 2.9%) and college education (up 0.1 percentage point to 5.8%).

Longer-term inflation expectations were stable, holding at 3.3% for the three-year horizon and 3% for the five-year horizon. Elsewhere, median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations were unchanged at 2.8%, and household spending growth expectations edged down by 0.1 percentage point to 4.9%. Unemployment expectations rose by 1.1 percentage points to 42.8%.