FX.co ★ Wheat Market Weighs Supply Risks and Weak Demand

Wheat prices hovered around $6.40 per bushel, staying more than 10% below the two-year high of $7.08 reached on July 22. The market has been pressured by weaker Russian export prices, muted global demand, and the availability of alternative shipping routes, all of which have tempered worries over disruptions in the Black Sea region.

Broader market sentiment has also improved on hopes of progress in talks to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, after Pakistan indicated that the US and Iran were “close to some sort of arrangement” aimed at easing tensions.

Still, risks to grain exports persist, as Ukraine and Russia continue to target each other’s maritime infrastructure. Ukraine has cut its 2026/27 grain export forecast by up to 12% from a previous estimate, while Russia’s wheat export projections have likewise been scaled back. Consultancy IKAR has lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports to 44.5 million tonnes, and Sovecon expects August shipments to drop to their lowest level in a decade.

Traders are now looking ahead to the latest US government crop forecasts, due on Wednesday.