FX.co ★ Oil Falls as Gulf Exports Recover and Talks Stall

Crude oil fell below $83 a barrel on Friday, extending its weekly decline to nearly 5%, as traders continued to track developments in the Middle East and efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs estimated that Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to roughly two-thirds of their pre-war levels, supported by a gradual increase in shipments through the strategic chokepoint. Regional exports are now reported at about 15–16 million barrels per day—still well below the pre-conflict range of 22–24 million barrels, but markedly higher than the March trough of roughly 5–6 million barrels. In parallel, Iran and Oman reached an agreement on a revenue-sharing framework for the strait, though Tehran stressed that this does not signal an imminent reopening. Adding to the uncertainty, the Trump administration has reportedly informed mediators that it does not intend to reinstate the terms of a preliminary agreement with Iran reached in June, which later collapsed.