FX.co ★ Wheat Falls on Monday, Up 16% in August

Wheat futures fell about 3% to $7.43 per bushel on Monday, pulling back from the three-year high of $7.67 hit in the previous session as traders locked in profits. Even with the setback, prices are still up more than 16% so far in August, on track for their strongest monthly gain since February 2022.

The recent rally has been fueled by mounting concerns over potential disruptions to Black Sea exports, as ports and shipping infrastructure in both Russia and Ukraine continue to come under attack. Together, the two countries account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports. In response, Russian exporters have increasingly shifted shipments to Baltic ports, while some importers are diversifying toward alternative origins, including Romania, France, and Poland.

The market outlook remains highly uncertain as geopolitical tensions escalate and the chances of a near-term peace agreement diminish. Adding to the longer-term uncertainty, Ukraine expects farmers to cut winter-wheat sowings for the 2027 crop.