FX.co ★ Ibovespa Rises as Election Polls Show Tighter Race

The Ibovespa climbed about 1% on Monday, trading near the 178,000 level after the release of new presidential election polls. The BTG/Nexus survey showed President Lula with 46% of voting intentions in a potential runoff, compared with 45% for Flávio Bolsonaro—considered by markets to be more fiscally conservative in a context of high domestic interest rates and weak economic activity—indicating a technical tie.

The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll, in turn, showed Lula with 47.1% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 42.6% in a hypothetical second round, narrowing Lula’s lead to 4.5 percentage points from 6.3 points in the previous survey published in July.

Gains were broad-based. Petrobras advanced around 3%, outperforming as oil prices rebounded amid intensifying tensions in the Middle East, with the US and Iran exchanging strikes for the first time in about a month. Major banks rose by more than 2%, while utilities also moved higher, with Axia up over 1%. Vale added roughly 1% as iron ore prices increased.