FX.co ★ Kazakhstan Unexpectedly Cuts Rates by 50 Bps to 16.25%

The National Bank of Kazakhstan cut its base rate by 50 bps to 16.25% at its September 2026 meeting, surprising markets that had largely expected a smaller 25 bps reduction. This move followed a 25 bps cut in July and came as annual inflation declined for the eleventh consecutive month, reaching 9.8% in August—its lowest level since February 2025—amid slower increases in both food and non-food prices. In total, the central bank has reduced rates by 175 bps since June, bringing the policy rate to its lowest point since February 2025 against a backdrop of steadily moderating inflation. At the same time, the bank cautioned that the external environment remains volatile, citing elevated energy prices linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and rising external inflationary pressures.