FX.co ★ US Inflation Expectations Remain Elevated

US consumers’ median one-year inflation expectations held steady at 3.6% in August 2026, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. Beneath this headline figure, however, expected price growth for specific categories moved higher. Anticipated gas price inflation rose 1.7 percentage points to 4.6%, while expected food price increases edged up 0.3 percentage point to 5.3%. Medical-care price expectations climbed 0.2 percentage point to 9.1%. Forecasts for college education costs advanced 0.3 percentage point to 6.1%, and rent expectations increased 0.7 percentage point to 6.6%.

Longer-term views were more stable. The five-year-ahead inflation measure was unchanged at 3%, and three-year-ahead expectations slipped 0.1 percentage point to 3.2%. Elsewhere in the survey, median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations rose slightly to 2.9%. At the same time, concerns about the labour market deepened: the mean perceived probability that unemployment will be higher in a year increased by 1.6 percentage points to 44.4%, the highest reading since April 2020.