FX.co ★ National Bank of Poland Leaves Rates Unchanged as Expected

The National Bank of Poland left its key policy rate unchanged at 3.75% at its September 2026 meeting, in line with market expectations and marking the fifth consecutive meeting with rates held at their lowest level since 2022. Headline inflation accelerated to 3.4%, its highest reading since June 2025 and just below the upper bound of the central bank’s 2.5% ± 1 pp target range, as ongoing tensions in the Middle East continued to push up energy prices. Fuel price caps also expired, a development that could support the government’s budget. Meanwhile, the economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 3.9% in the second quarter of 2026, driven by faster investment growth, while consumption slowed amid weaker wage growth. Policymakers remained cautious, pointing to elevated uncertainty surrounding the broader geopolitical environment and its implications for the economy. They reiterated that future decisions will continue to be guided by the inflation outlook and developments in economic activity and wage growth.