FX.co ★ US Inflation Rate Seen Holding Steady at 3.4%

The annual US inflation rate is projected to have held steady at 3.4% in August 2026, unchanged from July. On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise 0.4%—the strongest increase in three months—after a 0.1% gain in July.

Gasoline prices are expected to have climbed nearly 3%, while grocery prices are also projected to rebound. Airfares are likely to remain elevated amid higher fuel costs, whereas housing costs are anticipated to continue showing signs of softness.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to increase 0.2% month over month, matching July’s pace, and 2.4% year over year. That would be the lowest annual core reading since March 2021, down from 2.5% in July. Overall, inflation is still expected to remain well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.