FX.co ★ Oil Rally Pauses on Mideast Diplomatic Efforts

Crude oil halted its recent rally on Friday, stabilizing around $100 a barrel after Iranian state media reported that Tehran would hold talks with Gulf states in Oman on the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomats from the Gulf Cooperation Council are scheduled to meet their Iranian counterpart on Monday to explore a possible temporary arrangement for overseeing shipping traffic through the strategic waterway.

Adding to the downward pressure on prices, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its forecast for US crude production in 2027 to 14.3 million barrels per day, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) sharply lowered its outlook for global oil demand, projecting a contraction of 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026.

In the meantime, China is on track to import roughly the same volume of crude in September as it did in August, with buying recovering from June’s decade-low levels. Saudi Arabia has shut its East–West crude pipeline as a precaution following multiple attacks, and Iran-backed Houthi forces have reportedly advanced toward Yemen’s Perim Island. Despite Friday’s pause, oil prices surged 9.7% over the week.