FX.co ★ Chicago Fed National Activity Index Slips Into Negative Territory in August

The U.S. economy showed signs of moderating momentum in late summer, as the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) dipped into negative territory in August 2026. The index fell to -0.04 in August from a positive 0.08 reading in July 2026, signaling a slight move below trend growth. The latest data were updated on 21 September 2026.

The CFNAI is a composite measure designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure, with zero indicating trend growth. While the shift from 0.08 to -0.04 suggests a softening in activity between July and August, the reading close to zero points to only a modest loss of momentum rather than a sharp downturn.

Investors and policymakers are likely to watch subsequent releases closely to determine whether August’s negative reading marks the beginning of a more pronounced slowdown or a temporary pause following earlier strength in the economy.