FX.co ★ Ibovespa Falls on Political and Inflation Concerns

The Ibovespa dropped 0.9% on Wednesday, closing at 185,814 points, pressured by new election polls and a rebound in oil prices. An AtlasIntel survey for October’s presidential race showed President Lula regaining a numerical lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a simulated second-round runoff, although the two remain technically tied within the margin of error. At the same time, oil prices rose amid uncertainty surrounding diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing concerns about energy-driven inflation. Adding to the cautious mood, the Copom minutes released yesterday were interpreted as more hawkish than markets had anticipated.

Sector performance was broadly negative. Financials dragged the index lower: Itaú fell 1.9%, Bradesco and Banco do Brasil each lost 2.2%, and Itaúsa declined 1.9%. Utilities also retreated, with Sabesp down nearly 2.8%. Vale slid 1.8%, weighed down by weak profitability among Chinese steelmakers. In contrast, Petrobras advanced 2.6%, supported by higher oil prices.