FX.co ★ Ibovespa Falls as Oil Rally Resumes

The Ibovespa slipped 0.3% on Monday, closing at 182,991, pressured by a weak external backdrop, higher inflation expectations, and fresh polling that confirmed a tight presidential race. Oil prices resumed their advance after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting concerns that energy-driven inflation could keep interest rates higher for longer. Rising bond yields weighed on credit-sensitive shares, dragging down major banks, with Itaú and Bradesco each losing 1%.

On the macro front, the BCB’s Focus survey showed that market participants raised their 2026 inflation forecast from 4.92% to 4.99%, while the year-end 2026 Selic rate projection was unchanged at 13.5%. Politically, a new election poll indicated that President Lula has widened his lead over Flávio Bolsonaro, who is regarded by markets as the more fiscally conservative candidate in a context of elevated domestic yields and sluggish business activity.

Among individual names, Ambev (-0.8%), WEG (-1.9%) and Vivo (-2%) were notable underperformers. In contrast, Petrobras climbed 1.5%, while Vale advanced 0.5%.