FX.co ★ Dollar Holds Near 18-Month High

The dollar index hovered near 102 on Monday, holding close to its highest level since April 2025, even as traders dialed back expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike following weaker-than-forecast US employment data. The greenback also drew support from euro weakness, driven by mounting fiscal debt concerns and persistent political deadlock in France.

Data released on Friday showed the US economy created just 29,000 jobs in September, far below the consensus estimate of 90,000, after August’s gain was revised down to 133,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while annual wage growth unexpectedly slowed to 3.0%, its weakest pace since May 2021.

Futures markets now imply nearly an 80% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, while expectations for a rate hike in December are holding around 69%.