FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Rises Ahead Fed Minutes

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.3% on Monday, approaching its highest level since March 2022, as investors digested fresh economic data and positioned ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes. The latest ISM survey showed that services-sector activity continued to expand, with the services PMI at 54.9 in September—slightly below August’s reading but broadly in line with expectations. At the same time, cost pressures intensified, underscoring renewed inflation risks even as overall business activity moderated. Bond markets have come under sustained selling pressure in recent weeks, though Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report briefly pulled yields lower and dampened expectations for another near-term Fed rate hike. Investor focus is now shifting to Wednesday’s minutes for additional insight into the central bank’s policy outlook. Futures markets currently imply roughly an 82% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting.