FX.co ★ Brazil 10-Year Yield Nears 1-Year Low

Brazil’s 10-year government bond yield fell to 13%, nearing a one-year low, after Flávio Bolsonaro outperformed President Lula in the first round of the presidential election, contrary to most poll forecasts. The result prompted a sharp repricing of Brazilian assets. Senator Bolsonaro won 47.03% of valid votes, compared with 45.16% for President Lula, beating the average of polls tracked by Goldman Sachs by more than four percentage points.

Markets view Bolsonaro as more fiscally conservative, a stance that stands out against the backdrop of elevated domestic yields and subdued business activity. His stronger-than-expected showing has reinforced expectations that a Bolsonaro administration would seek tighter control of public spending and adopt measures to address Brazil’s deteriorating fiscal position.

A weaker outlook for public spending could lower the risk premium required by investors, while contractionary fiscal policy could help to contain inflationary pressures. Together, these dynamics may create room for the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) to begin cutting interest rates more rapidly.