FX.co ★ Atlanta Fed GDPNow Holds Q3 Growth Estimate at 3.7%

As of October 6, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates that real GDP will grow at an annualized rate of 3.7% in the third quarter of 2026, unchanged from the October 1 estimate after rounding.

Recent data releases from the US Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Institute for Supply Management led to slightly higher nowcasts for key components of GDP. The estimate for third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth ticked up from 3.3% to 3.4%, and the estimate for real gross private domestic investment growth edged up from 21.4% to 21.5%.

These upward revisions were offset by a larger negative contribution from net exports. The estimated contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth declined from -2.59 percentage points to -2.69 percentage points, leaving the overall GDP growth estimate unchanged.