FX.co ★ U.S. 1-Year Inflation Expectations Tick Higher to 3.9% in September, NY Fed Survey Shows

U.S. consumers’ short-term inflation expectations edged up in September, according to the latest New York Federal Reserve survey, signaling that price pressures remain a concern for households. The median 1-year inflation outlook rose to 3.9% in September 2026, up from 3.6% in August.

The data, updated on 07 October 2026, indicate that consumers now expect slightly faster price increases over the coming year. The rise in the 1-year expectation measure is closely watched by policymakers and markets, as inflation expectations can influence wage demands, spending behavior, and ultimately the path of actual inflation.

While the move from 3.6% to 3.9% is modest, it suggests that progress toward more subdued inflation perceptions may be uneven, even as headline inflation data and monetary policy decisions continue to shape the broader economic outlook.