FX.co ★ Dollar Index at March 2025-Highs

The dollar index traded near 102.3 on Wednesday, its highest level since March 2025, as ongoing volatility in oil markets stoked inflation concerns and bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain tighter monetary policy for an extended period. Minutes from the September FOMC meeting showed that most Fed officials still anticipated another rate hike this year, though they indicated there was no immediate need to move. Market pricing reflected this shift in tone: the probability of an October rate hike fell to 17%, down from about 70% in the days after the September decision, while the likelihood of a 25 bps increase in December rose to around 70%. The dollar advanced broadly, posting its largest gains against the euro, as political and fiscal uncertainties in Spain and France weighed on the common currency.