FX.co ★ Dollar Little Changed

The dollar index was little changed at 102.2 on Thursday, hovering near its April 2025 highs, as the greenback remained supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to keep interest rates elevated for longer. Oil prices rose again, adding to inflationary pressures and further bolstering expectations of additional Fed tightening. Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting showed that most policymakers still anticipate another increase in the federal funds rate this year, though the timing remains uncertain. On Thursday, Fed Governor Waller said that further rate hikes will likely be required to bring inflation back to target, while stressing that there is “flexibility” regarding the pace of increases. Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 78% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in October, while the odds of a 25 bps hike in December are around 69%. Meanwhile, higher government bond yields in Europe continued to pressure the euro.