FX.co ★ Iron Ore Extends Decline on Ample Supply

Iron ore futures declined toward CNY 680 per ton, nearing a four-year low, as ample global supply, high Chinese stockpiles, and lower shipping costs continued to weigh on prices. Global mining capacity is expanding, and producers are ramping up fourth-quarter shipments to hit quarterly and annual targets. At the same time, iron ore shipments and arrivals at Chinese ports have remained strong, bolstered by a notable increase in volumes from smaller mining operations.

Freight rates have also continued to ease. Industry data show that on Monday the Capesize C5 route from Australia to China fell by $0.64 per ton, while the C3 route from Brazil to China declined by $0.37 per ton. Adding to the bearish tone, the World Steel Association now expects global steel demand to contract by 0.1% in 2026, a reversal from its April forecast of 0.3% growth, amid weakening demand in China and disruptions linked to the US–Iran conflict.