FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Steadies Ahead of CPI Report

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was little changed around 5.21% on Wednesday, as investors awaited September’s consumer inflation data for guidance on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. New York Fed President John Williams reiterated that one additional rate hike may be appropriate this year, while suggesting that further tightening is unlikely to be needed in 2027. At the same time, Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that inflation expectations remain “well anchored.” Markets are also watching for additional comments later in the day from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman.

Interest-rate futures currently imply about a 77% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady this month, and an 88% chance of a rate increase in December. Treasury yields have pulled back in recent sessions as the global bond selloff has moderated, while increased volatility in equity markets has bolstered demand for Treasuries as a safe-haven asset.