FX.co ★ Aluminum Falls to Year-to-Date Low

Aluminum futures in the UK fell to $3,020 per tonne in October, the lowest level so far this year, fully reversing the gains made since the onset of the conflict between Iran and the United States. The decline came amid a stronger US dollar and abundant supply from regions outside the Middle East.

Smelting capacity in the Middle East has been brought back online more quickly than previously indicated, after earlier damage to facilities and shutdowns linked to disruptions in regional natural gas supply chains. Emirates Global Aluminium reported that one-quarter of its Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi has resumed operations.

Supply expectations were further supported by Rio Tinto’s agreement to keep its Bell Bay Aluminium smelter in Tasmania running through the end of 2031. At the same time, China’s exports have increased sharply despite the 30% export duty imposed on primary aluminum smelters, which is pushing secondary producers to target overseas markets. Export volumes of aluminum alloys doubled year-on-year to 4.46 million tons through August.