FX.co ★ Warsh Comments Boost Bets on Fed Rate Hold in October

Fed Chair Warsh avoided signalling the likely outcome of this month’s FOMC meeting, saying that the recent, hotter‑than‑expected inflation data had not changed his overall assessment of the US economy. His remarks led traders to further pare back the probability of an October rate hike. Speaking at an IMF summit in Bangkok, Warsh stated, “I don’t prejudge meetings. I don’t believe in saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year,” while adding that “the world has broadly conformed with our expectations.” He again highlighted his concerns over persistently high inflation, stressing that central banks in the US and elsewhere recognise that price pressures remain uncomfortably elevated. The Fed raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4% in September 2026, its first increase since 2023. All 19 policymakers supported the decision, and a majority also projected one additional hike before year‑end.