FX.co ★ Lumber Drops Toward Two-Year Low

Lumber futures fell below $527 per thousand board feet, nearing a two-year low amid ongoing weakness in the US housing market. Homebuilder confidence has dropped to its lowest level in 14 years, as elevated mortgage rates, labor shortages, and high construction costs continue to pressure the sector. Mortgage rates have risen to 7.4%, a three-year high, increasing borrowing costs, curbing housing demand, and weighing on prices.

At the same time, trade tensions with Canada continue to restrict lumber supply while still exerting downward pressure on prices. Although the US Department of Commerce reduced antidumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood lumber to 24.75% from 35.16%, a separate 10% US tariff lifts the total duty burden to 34.75%, limiting the scope for a recovery in supply. The US Lumber Coalition welcomed the move, as US forestry interests have long accused Canadian producers of dumping lumber in the American market. By contrast, the NAHB has called for a halt to tariffs on building materials.