FX.co ★ Dollar Lower to Start November

The US dollar index slipped to around 101.6 at the start of November, extending its decline for a fourth straight session after posting a modest 0.4% gain in October. Traders are positioning for a busy week packed with key events, including the US midterm elections, the latest jobs report, and interest rate decisions from the central banks of the UK, Australia, Norway, and Sweden.

The dollar also faced downward pressure from weaker oil prices, amid rising hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough in the US–Iran standoff. At the same time, markets continue to factor in another 25 bps rate increase from the Federal Reserve in December, with the implied probability holding near 75%. Last week, the Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged, in line with expectations. By contrast, the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and Sweden’s Riksbank are all anticipated to raise interest rates in the coming days.