FX.co ★ New Zealand 10-Year Yield Falls to August Lows

New Zealand’s 10-year government bond yield fell to 4.72%, its lowest level since late August, after weaker-than-expected labor market data reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has limited room for further monetary tightening. The unemployment rate climbed to 5.7% in the third quarter, its highest level since Q3 2015 and above the 5.5% forecast, while employment unexpectedly slipped 0.1% from the previous quarter, compared with expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage growth also moderated, signaling persistent softness in domestic demand and muted underlying inflationary pressures.

In response, markets scaled back the likelihood of another rate increase in December, with the implied probability dropping from nearly 80% to about 57%. The data arrive just days before New Zealand’s November 7 general election, adding to economic uncertainty as the ruling coalition comes under increased scrutiny over its management of the recovery.