FX.co ★ Atlanta Fed GDPNow Trims U.S. Q4 Growth Estimate to 3.4%

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model has revised its estimate for U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2026 down to 3.4%, from a prior reading of 3.7%. The latest update, published on 4 November 2026, suggests slightly softer momentum in real GDP than previously projected.

While the change is modest, the adjustment signals a cooling from earlier expectations, and will likely be watched closely by investors and policymakers for signs of how resilient U.S. activity remains late in the year. The GDPNow model is frequently updated as new data arrive, and the fourth-quarter 2026 projection may continue to evolve as additional economic indicators are released.