FX.co ★ European Natural Gas Prices Extend Gains

European natural gas prices rose above €94/MWh on Friday, extending their rebound from a two-week low amid ongoing supply concerns. Traders remain cautiously optimistic about a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran war, but a swift agreement appears unlikely as key points of contention persist. At the same time, continued attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz have intensified worries over LNG exports from the Gulf, with the conflict disrupting nearly one-fifth of global LNG supply.

Europe’s energy market remains tight heading into winter. EU gas storage stands at roughly 74%, significantly below the five-year seasonal average of 90%, while Germany’s reserves have fallen under 61%. Colder temperatures, combined with weak wind and solar output, have already triggered early withdrawals from storage, and reduced Norwegian pipeline flows due to outages are further straining supplies.

Despite Friday’s advance, European gas prices are still on track for a 9% weekly decline, marking their first weekly drop in six weeks.