FX.co ★ 24.06.2022: Fed chief says Ukraine conflict not main driver of US inflation.

Following some swings, oil prices stabilized around $110 per barrel as expected. For now, there is no news that could affect investor sentiment. Thus, market participants are waiting for the US Congress to decide on a federal fuel tax holiday. Most likely this decision will become known today.However, even if Congress passes this legislation, it will hardly have a severe impact on the market since the federal tax is for the most part lower than similar taxes in the states themselves. This step will only enable each of the fifty states to consider this measure. The matter will probably be resolved as early as Monday. Until then, the situation in the oil market is likely to remain unchanged.According to the trading chart, a decline in Brent crude oil futures slowed down as the market reached oversold levels in the short term. As a result, the price entered a 4-dollar sideways range. Its lower boundary, the area of ​​$108 per barrel, now serves as a variable support. If the price fixes below the 108 mark on the four-hour chart, the volume of short positions will increase. In this case, the asset will most likely slide to the area of 105-100. Until then, the market is expected to remain range-bound.Gold made another attempt to rise above $1,840 per ounce but then collapsed by more than $20. According to technical indicators, gold is gradually losing value, which can be confirmed by a ladder-shaped downtrend pattern. If the price fixes below the 1,820 mark, the yellow metal will extend losses and probably approach the level of 1800.Its decline was caused by the comments by JEROME POWELL that the crisis in ukraine was not the main driver of inflation. He noted that consumer prices began to accelerate well before February 2022. According to the head of the US Federal Reserve, the only tool to battle inflation, currently available to the regulator, is interest rate hikes.Therefore, many have concluded that the Fed will raise its benchmark interest rate by 0.75% at the next policy meeting. This, in turn, will lead to an even greater increase in government bond yields. Against this background, investors began to close part of their positions in order to redirect financial flows to the debt market. As a result, gold suffered heavy losses. Considering the future plans of both Fed and ECB policymakers, the medium-term outlook for gold is rather gloomy. Now let's consider the dynamics of the Russian currency. Yesterday, the dollar once again fell to 52 rubles. Then, the US currency managed to return to the area of 53 to 54 rubles per dollar. Thus, after hitting the local low, the USD/RUB pair formed another sideways range limited by the levels ​​of 52.80 and 54.00. In this case, the best tactic is to trade with a view to breaking one or another boundary of the range on the four-hour chart. The pair’s persistent attempts to overcome the mark of 52 rubles clearly indicate that market sentiment is bearish. The ruble is expected to extend gains until the Bank of Russia takes more active steps to ease its monetary policy.

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