FX.co ★ 27.09.2021: Traders to go long or short on USD? Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

Today, the US durable goods order report is the only event that traders will pay attention to. However, market participants priced in the data on Friday, when the forecast was upwardly revised. At first, analysts had expected a decline of 0.2%, and then they changed their predictions to a 0.4% rise. Thus, traders have already priced in both a rise in durable goods orders and a possible jump in retail sales. Meanwhile, the market is showing mixed trading. The pound sterling is rebounding, whereas the euro continues dropping. According to the fundamental analysis, the movement of the euro and the pound sterling could be explained by a political factor that is the results of Germany’s federal election. The leader of the winning Social Democratic Party announced the necessity to break off the long-lasting alliance with the Christian Democratic Union and establish relations with the Green Party. It means that the largest eurozone economy will come across political changes. This, in turn, may lead to numerous problems, especially in the economic sphere. As a result, the euro is under pressure from the current state of affairs. In addition, the settlement of the issue may take more than a month. Let us take a look at the trading charts. The euro/dollar pair managed to break the lower limit of the range between 1.1700 and 1.1750. As a result, the quote dropped to the level of 1.1685, repeating the movement recorded on September 22. If the price fixes below 1.1680, it is likely to resume the downward trend. In this case, the local low logged on August 20 could be broken. However, if the break of 1.1700 is false, the pair will resume hovering between 1.1700 and 1.1750. At the same time, the pound/dollar pair fell from the resistance level of 1.3750. As a result, the volume of dollar positions increased after a drop on September 23. A bit later, the pair stagnated near 1.3655 and rebounded. If the price fixes below 1.3650, it may slide even deeper to 1.3610. In this case, the volume of short positions may rise.

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