FX.co ★ absh kaat | USD/JPY

I believe today’s trading session deserves special attention because I am seeing a combination of highly volatile high-impact news alongside low- to medium-impact events, and I expect this mix to significantly influence price behavior across multiple currency pairs, including USDJPY. I emphasize that I am approaching the market with caution because I understand that elevated volatility can quickly amplify both profits and losses, which is why I strongly rely on strict money management principles in my own trading decisions. I note that USDJPY is currently moving higher and is trading around the 159.15 price level, which I interpret as a sign that bullish momentum is still present in the short term despite the broader risks associated with today’s news environment. I observe on the hourly chart that USDJPY is trading comfortably above the MA (200) H1 moving average, which is currently positioned near 156.70, and I consider this a technical confirmation that buyers are still in control on the intraday timeframe. I also confirm on the four-hour chart that the pair remains above the MA (200) H4 moving average, and I view this alignment across timeframes as an important indication of a sustained bullish structure rather than a temporary spike. I conclude from this multi-timeframe analysis that the dominant trend is still upward, and I therefore focus my strategy on identifying potential buying opportunities rather than attempting to fade the trend. I personally prefer to wait for a corrective pullback because I believe entering after a retracement offers a better risk-to-reward ratio and reduces the likelihood of chasing price at overextended levels. I identify the nearest resistance levels at 159.61, 160.04, and 160.90, and I treat these areas as potential zones where bullish momentum may slow or where partial profit-taking could occur. I also carefully monitor the support levels at 158.32, 157.46, and 157.03, because I consider these levels critical for assessing whether bullish control remains intact during any short-term corrections. I expect that if bullish momentum persists and price holds above key moving averages, USDJPY could continue its advance toward the next resistance level at 159.61, which I see as the first realistic upside target. I also remain aware that strong news-driven volatility could trigger sharp pullbacks, and I therefore prepare for the alternative scenario in which price may fall below the H4 MA (200) moving average. I acknowledge that a sustained break below this moving average could signal a deeper correction, and I would then expect a potential decline toward the 155.93 level. I stress that I do not see this bearish scenario as my primary expectation, but I still account for it because I know that news-driven markets can invalidate technical setups very quickly. I consistently remind myself that discipline is essential, especially on days like today when volatility can spike unexpectedly. I encourage traders to remain patient, to size their positions conservatively, and to respect both technical levels and fundamental catalysts. I conclude that overall, my analysis favors cautious bullish continuation on USDJPY, provided that price remains above the key moving averages and respects identified support zones, while I stay flexible and ready to adapt if market conditions change abruptly.

I am continuing to analyze USD/JPY with a clear focus on finding potential selling opportunities because I strongly believe that no trend, regardless of how strong it appears, can last forever and every momentum phase eventually comes to an end. I base this view on the simple market principle that excessive optimism often precedes correction, and I find it reasonable to question whether the current bullish phase is approaching exhaustion. I observed that on Wednesday the daily chart formed a fairly clear bearish candle, and I interpret this as an early warning signal that buying pressure may be weakening. I also note that on Thursday the market appears to be attempting to continue this downward movement, which reinforces my interest in exploring short-side scenarios rather than blindly following the prevailing bullish trend. I start my deeper analysis on the daily timeframe using indicator-based tools because I consider them reliable for identifying broader market sentiment and potential reversal zones. I see that the MA100 is still trending north with an approximate angle of 30 degrees, and I acknowledge that this technically reflects a buyable intraweek sentiment. I recognize that this upward slope of the moving average suggests that bulls still maintain structural control, and I do not ignore this fact in my risk assessment. I also observe that all three Bollinger Bands are positioned above the key moving average, which further confirms that the pair remains in a bullish regime from a trend-following perspective. I note that the Bollinger Bands are arching upward at a similar 30-degree angle, and I understand that this configuration typically signals continued growth and strong directional momentum. I admit that at first glance, all these indicators appear to be pointing clearly in favor of further upside. I then shift my focus to what I believe is the most critical element of the current setup, which is the presence of a global sell signal from the Semafor indicator. I observe that this Semafor signal is located at a very technical and psychologically important zone near the upper Bollinger Band. I interpret the fact that price managed to push a candle beyond the upper Bollinger Band as a classic sign of overextension rather than sustainable strength. I believe this move strongly suggests that bulls may have completed their primary objectives and are now gradually exiting positions. I consider this behavior typical at the late stage of a trend, where smart money distributes positions to late buyers before allowing the market to reverse. I therefore view the current price action as a potential transition phase where control could slowly shift from bulls to bears. I also emphasize that I am not expecting an immediate collapse, but rather a corrective or reversal structure that may unfold over several sessions. I have identified a key estimated support level around 157.77, and I see this level as a critical battlefield for both buyers and sellers. I believe that for a bearish scenario to gain real credibility, price must not only fall toward this support but also consolidate firmly below it. I stress that a simple intraday spike below 157.77 would not be enough for me to confirm a trend reversal. I would prefer to see sustained acceptance below this level, supported by bearish candles and increasing selling pressure. I remain patient because I understand that countertrend trades require precise timing and strict risk management. I conclude that while the broader trend still favors buyers, the combination of overextension, a Semafor sell signal, and emerging bearish daily candles makes USD/JPY an attractive candidate for cautious short setups if confirmation appears below key support.