FX.co ★ absh kaat | USD/JPY

On today’s H1 chart of USD/JPY, I see that the pair began the week with a noticeable decline during the Asia-Pacific session on Monday, and I observed that the bearish pressure remained consistent through Tuesday and extended into Wednesday, ultimately reaching a cumulative move of around 4,500 pips before any meaningful reaction appeared. I interpret this sustained downside movement as evidence that the yen was regaining short-term strength, and I believe that market participants were initially positioning defensively ahead of key U.S. data. I note that only the release of positive U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data shifted sentiment, and I recognize that this catalyst effectively halted the yen’s advance and prevented further downside expansion. I also observe that despite weaker U.S. unemployment claims and softer consumer price index figures afterward, I see that the pair did not resume a strong decline, which I interpret as a sign of temporary balance between buyers and sellers. I clearly identify that the current structure on the H1 timeframe reflects a sideways or flat trend, and I acknowledge that volatility has compressed compared to the earlier part of the week. I notice that the RSI(10) indicator remains in negative territory, and I interpret this as lingering bearish momentum, although I do not see sufficient strength to justify aggressive selling at current levels. I prefer to adopt a wait-and-see approach in this context, and I deliberately avoid opening positions in either direction until I see stronger confirmation. I specifically want to see price establish a stable position either above or below the Boa(50) moving average line, because I consider that level to be my dynamic trend filter. I also wait for the Grail Indicator to print its yellow icon at a confirmed fractal high or low, because I rely on that signal to validate a sell or buy setup. I believe that patience in this consolidation phase protects my capital, and I prioritize discipline over impulsive trades while monitoring USD/JPY for a clearer directional breakout.

I now see that USD/JPY has slipped lower again, and I have reviewed the daily chart carefully to reassess the broader structure in comparison with what I previously observed on the weekly timeframe. I notice that on the weekly chart I still perceive the broader uptrend as technically intact, and I interpret last week’s decline there as a relatively modest corrective pullback within a larger bullish cycle. I acknowledge that the weekly sentiment still carries upward pressure, and I recognize that the decline on that timeframe does not yet fully invalidate the longer-term bullish structure. However, I observe that the daily chart presents a fundamentally different and much more aggressive picture, and I interpret the recent price action as significantly more bearish in character. I see five consecutive daily bearish candlesticks over the past week, and although I admit that Friday’s candle was modest and Thursday’s local low was not decisively broken, I still interpret the sequence as strong downside momentum. I note that the decline has filled and broken the January 26th gap, and I consider that technical development to be structurally important for trend assessment. I also recognize that the price has broken and consolidated below the 154.34 benchmark, which I identify as the last significant zigzag low, and I interpret that break as a redrawing of the dominant direction from upward to downward on the daily timeframe. I therefore see any upward movement from here as corrective rather than impulsive in nature. At the same time, I paradoxically find long positions attractive from a strategic perspective, because I anticipate that deeper pullbacks into the 152.09–150.30 range could offer high-probability recovery setups. I do not favor opening long positions at the current level, but I consider buying within that lower demand zone as technically viable if supportive confirmation appears.