FX.co ★ Jackroay | EUR/USD

I am looking at the current structure on EUR/USD and I see that sellers still have not been able to fully assert control, since they failed to push the price down to 1.1700 and only managed to extend the correction to around 1.1740 before losing momentum. I notice that the decline ended with choppy price action, which tells me that bearish pressure was not strong or consistent enough to trigger panic selling. I see that buyers were clearly nervous during this move, but I also observe that they managed to rebound toward 1.1780, although I recognize that the upside was limited and quickly met with renewed selling pressure. I am focusing on the H4 timeframe and I see that price is compressing within relatively tight boundaries, which makes me think that volatility is being stored for a larger move. I believe that unless bulls confidently break and consolidate above the 1.1820–1.1830 resistance zone, I will continue to expect another rotation down toward 1.1740, and possibly even an extension toward 1.1650. I consider 1.1650 particularly important because I see it as a previously broken resistance on the daily chart, and I believe that if the pair consolidates below the 1.1700 handle, the path toward that level becomes technically justified, while I also acknowledge that any strong defense of 1.1740–1.1770 could open the door for a broader upside recovery next month.

I am also analyzing the daily timeframe and I see that price has effectively broken through a diagonal resistance line, which tells me that underlying bullish pressure has not completely disappeared. I observe that price tested the long zone near 1.18095 and pulled back without breaking below the 1.17722 support zone, which I interpret as evidence of ongoing demand. I notice that the market remains in a flat range, and I believe this sideways structure reflects a technical environment where harmonic signals like the Butterfly and Semaphore are becoming more relevant. I see that multiple Butterfly formations are appearing, and I interpret this as a sign of a highly technical, non-trending market, which makes me more willing to trust indicator signals. I acknowledge that both the Butterfly and the Semaphore are currently giving sell signals, and I see that price is reacting within a descending channel bounded roughly by 1.1810 and 1.1700. I believe that if the upper boundary continues to cap the upside, I will expect a pendulum-style move back toward 1.1700 support, while I also recognize that a confirmed break above 1.1816 would significantly strengthen the bullish case and shift momentum back in favor of the buyers.