FX.co ★ absh kaat | USD/CHF

I am currently looking at USD/CHF trading around 0.7731, and I can’t help but reflect on how often I blame the market instead of examining my own expectations and positioning. I recognize that when volatility contracts I complain about stagnation, and when volatility expands I start questioning the sustainability of the move, which makes me think the real battle is often internal rather than technical. I observe on the daily chart using my wave-based approach that the MA100 is sloping downward at roughly a 30-degree angle, and I interpret this as a broader bearish structural bias still dominating the higher timeframe. I also notice that the MA18 remains below the key moving average, which I read as confirmation that the prevailing trend has been sell-oriented overall. However, I clearly see that the tail of the MA18 has started to curl upward and is now pointing north at a similar 30-degree angle, and I interpret this as an early shift in weekly sentiment toward buying pressure. I observe that daily candlesticks are consolidating above the key moving average, and I believe this compression phase could soon produce a two-moving-average interaction pattern that signals a corrective upside phase. I do not expect an explosive rally to new long-term highs, but I do anticipate a controlled upward rotation within the broader structure. I see that the Ichimoku Cloud remains colored in bearish tones and that the histogram is expanded, and I interpret this as lingering downside momentum that is gradually losing force. I also note that price is hovering near the lower Kumo boundary, and I apply the pendulum rule to project a rebound toward resistance around 0.7815.

I see that the technical picture for USD/CHF is gradually shifting compared to last week, and I notice that buyers are starting to behave with more confidence after a period of persistent pressure. I observe on the H4 chart that the selloff from the 0.7780 high was eventually halted near 0.7630, and I interpret that reaction low as an early signal that bearish momentum was becoming exhausted. I recognize that although the pair initially only managed a modest rebound toward 0.7650, I view that stabilization as an important base-building phase that allowed buyers to accumulate positions. I see that once the market established support, I can clearly identify a reversal structure that enabled bulls to regain control and push the price back above 0.7715, which I consider a key intraday pivot. I believe that the narrowing of the price range during the rebound reflects compression of volatility, and I expect that this compression created the conditions for a breakout attempt toward 0.7760. I am now closely watching the 0.7760–0.7780 resistance zone, and I consider it a technically significant supply area where sellers may re-enter the market. I acknowledge that a retest of 0.7780 is possible, but I doubt that the pair will sustain a daily close above the 0.7800 handle without a strong fundamental catalyst. I currently favor trading within the 0.7760–0.7650 range, and I plan to look for bearish setups near the upper boundary while remaining cautious around mid-range levels. I believe that without strong drivers supporting further U.S. dollar appreciation, I expect the broader downward trend to attempt a restoration, and I will prioritize short positions if price action confirms rejection near resistance.