FX.co ★ dusty24 | GBP/USD

#GBP/USD (H1-H4-D1)

Hello colleagues! Today is Monday, the market is quite calm after the weekend in the USA, but GBP/USD is still moving. Today, the pair first dropped below 1.3200, touched 1.3180 or so, and then bounced back to 1.3240-1.3250. The most interesting movements were during the London session - volumes spiked when the price tested support, and sharp candles started forming. The Asian session was sluggish, and the American session has not picked up momentum yet. Now onto technical analysis: I looked at all timeframes - D1, H4, and H1. Overall, the picture is as follows: the pair is in a downtrend after breaking away from the 1.3400 and 1.3500 zones. On the daily chart, it can be seen that we broke an important level of 1.3300 and are currently hovering around 1.3200. Smart Money Concept (SMC) is clearly at play here: major players (banks, institutions) accumulated shorts above 1.3400, then triggered retail stops on the downside breakout, and now the price is in a zone of imbalance. On H4 and H1, it is visible how the price formed an Order Block around 1.3300-1.3350 (where strong demand was previously), and is now testing the lower Value Area Low closer to 1.3200. Wave analysis:

From the previous peak in May, it seems we are in a corrective wave (A-B-C). Wave A down impulsively reached 1.3200, B was a small bounce, and now C is unfolding. If we consider Fibonacci, the target (C) could be around 1.3000-1.2930, where strong support lies. However, the impulse is currently weak, RSI on H1 has already exited oversold territory (around 55), so a pullback is possible. Adding Bollinger Bands: on D1, the bands are narrowing, the price is moving along the lower band - a classic signal for a possible bounce or continuation after an expansion. On H1, the Bollinger Bands widened during the drop, and now the price is trying to return to the middle - if it consolidates above the middle, we expect a move towards the upper band around 1.3350. Patterns: a bearish engulfing formed on H4 a couple of days ago, but today a hammer or double bottom appeared at 1.3180 - this could be a reversal signal. Plus, there is divergence on MACD and RSI, indicating a weakening bearish momentum. News background for this week:

In the UK, there is political turmoil - Starmer's resignation adds volatility, the pound is sensitive to this. Last week, the BoE kept the rate at 3.75%, but not everyone is on board with the hawkish tone. In the US, the Fed was more hawkish, strengthening the dollar. Key data: flash PMI on Tuesday-Wednesday (UK and US), then core PCE on Thursday - if US inflation turns out hot, the dollar will continue to exert pressure. Expectations for the next few days: Most likely, a bounce to 1.3300 or 1.3320 (strong resistance), and then a decision - a breakout upwards or a fakeout back down to 1.3170-1.3100. The most likely scenario, in my opinion, is consolidation around 1.3220-1.3280 today or tomorrow, and then a potential breakout on Wednesday during the PMI. Wishing everyone a profitable week!