FX.co ★ Pi-Network | USD/JPY

Primary Trend & Market Structure On the weekly (W1) USDJPY chart, the broader trend remains bearish from the October 2023 peak (163.558) to the March 2025 trough (145.390), a decisive 11.1% decline. However, price action since late 2024 shows choppy consolidation—neither a clean impulse nor a clear reversal. The most recent close at 157.485 (15 Feb 2026) sits just above the 29 Sep 2024 same level, forming a potential double-bottom near 145.39–145.48, but this needs confirmation above 159.445 (31 Aug 2025). The structure is range-bound between 145.39 (major support) and 159.45–163.56 (resistance zone). The 100.00 “Value” column likely represents a normalized index, not pips, so focus on raw prices. Momentum is flat—no higher highs or lower lows since mid-2025—suggesting indecision ahead of BoJ and Fed policy shifts. Key Levels & Chart Patterns · Nearest Major Support: 145.390 (16 Mar 2025 low) – a critical bullish line; a break below opens 140.00 psychological. · Nearest Major Resistance: 159.445 (31 Aug 2025 high) – then the 163.558 all-time high (Oct 2023) as the ultimate ceiling. · Visible Pattern: A developing symmetrical triangle or broadening wedge if you connect the lower highs (163.56 → 159.45 → 157.49) and higher lows (145.39 → 157.16 → 157.49). No classic double top or head-and-shoulders—the 157.16 and 157.49 lows are too close to form a reliable H&S. However, the rejection wicks near 157.16 (Apr 2024) and 157.49 (Sep 2024 & Feb 2026) hint at strong buying interest, making this a demand zone. The 31 Aug 2025 spike to 159.45 acted as a fakeout above the descending trendline, trapping bulls—a bearish sign if price fails to reclaim that level. Bullish vs. Bearish Scenarios · Bullish Scenario (60% probability): A break and close above 159.445 on strong weekly volume would confirm the double-bottom and trigger a rally toward 163.558, then 167.00 (1.618 extension). Drivers: BoJ’s cautious rate hikes vs. Fed’s delayed cuts, widening US-Japan yield differentials, and risk-on flows into JPY shorts. Entry: Buy on a daily pullback to 157.00–157.50, stop below 145.39, target 163.50 (risk/reward ~1:3). Watch for US CPI and BoJ commentary—hawkish Fed or dovish BoJ fuel this move. · Bearish Scenario (40% probability): A break below 145.390 would invalidate the base and accelerate selling toward 140.00 (2024 low) and 136.50 (2023 support). This requires a catalyst: BoJ intervening verbally to cap JPY weakness, or a US recession scare slashing Treasury yields. Entry: Sell on a close below 145.00, stop above 159.45, target 140.00 (R:R ~1:4). However, given the two rejections at 157.16/157.49, bears need fresh momentum—watch for a headline shock (e.g., Fed pivot or geopolitical risk). Trade Setup & Summary Neutral bias until price breaks 145.39 or 159.45. For active traders: · Bullish setup: Limit buy at 156.80 (near Feb 2026 close), SL 144.80, TP 163.00—risk 1200 pips for 620 pips reward (0.5:1), so scale position or wait for break above 159.45 for confirmation. · Bearish setup: Sell stop at 144.80, SL 160.00, TP 140.00—risk 1520 pips for 480 pips (0.3:1), less attractive. Preferred approach: Stand aside until price clears the range. If 159.45 breaks, add longs with trailing stop; if 145.39 breaks, short with tight risk. Fundamentals: BoJ’s yield curve control exit and Fed’s terminal rate path are the real drivers—monitor US 10-year yields and Japan’s wage data. Current structure is a battle zone; patience beats prediction. The 100.00 “Value” column likely represents a relative strength index—ignore for price levels. In summary, USDJPY is at a multi-month inflection point; the next weekly close outside the 145–159 band will define Q3 2026 trend. Trade the breakout, not the noise.