FX.co ★ berta.hill | EUR/USD

Bearish Pressure Below Pivot 1.1538, Watch for Rebound from Oversold Area

On the EUR/USD chart on the H1 timeframe, the current price structure shows a bearish tendency, with the price around 1.1535, slightly below the daily Pivot Point 1.1538. The price position relative to the pivot level is the main concern because 1.1538 can act as the next directional decision area. As long as the price cannot return to and hold above the pivot, selling pressure should still be considered. From the candlestick structure, the price previously fell quite significantly from the 1.1600 area down to near 1.1530. After that decline, the movement began forming consolidation in the 1.1530–1.1550 range. However, the red MA line is still moving downward and is above the current price. That condition indicates that short-term trend momentum still leans negative. The blue MA is also far above the price, so visually the H1 structure still does not show a strong bullish reversal. Pivot level 1.1538 becomes a key zone. If the price remains below 1.1538 and there is a rejection during a pullback, a bearish scenario can be considered with the first target toward Support 1 at 1.1525. If selling pressure continues and 1.1525 is convincingly breached with an H1 candle, the next attention can be directed to Support 2 at 1.1513, then Support 3 at 1.1500. However, the Stochastic (5,3,3) indicator is around the 11–17 area, which means it has entered the oversold region. This condition does not automatically mean the price must rise, but it indicates that there is still room for a rebound or temporary correction. Therefore, chasing a sell position when the price is already too close to support should be done cautiously. Ideally wait for a pullback first or confirmation of a support breakdown. Conversely, if EUR/USD manages to break back above 1.1538 and an H1 candle can hold above that level, the short-term bearish scenario needs to be re-evaluated. In that case, the price could test Resistance 1 at 1.1550. If 1.1550 is breached and turns into support, the next targets are 1.1563, then 1.1575. Trading Strategy Bearish scenario: wait for the price to pull back to around 1.1538–1.1550, then look for signs of a bearish rejection. Targets can occur as rebounds. Risk management, candle confirmation, and reactions are directed stepwise to 1.1525 → 1.1513 → 1.1500. Stop loss should be placed based on swing high structure and risk tolerance, not just a fixed number. Bullish scenario: do not rush to buy just because Stochastic is oversold. Wait for a breakout and H1 confirmation above 1.1538, with potential tests of 1.1550 → 1.1563 → 1.1575. In conclusion, 1.1538 is the main decision level. Price below the pivot maintains a bearish bias, but the oversold Stochastic increases the chance of a rebound. Risk management, candle confirmation, and price reaction around the pivot and support/resistance remain important factors before taking a position.