FX.co ★ Fixy | GBP/USD

The GBPUSD opened the new week cautiously, fluctuating around the 1.3237 level, seeking a sustained recovery from its three-month low. This adjustment is primarily due to the weakness in the US labor market, which has put significant pressure on the dollar. Specifically, the latest domestic employment data showed that the US added only 29,000 jobs in September, a figure well below market expectations of 90,000. This substantial shortfall prompted market participants to quickly revise their expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's near-term monetary policy path, significantly increasing the likelihood that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting in October, while postponing expectations of further monetary tightening until December. Meanwhile, the UK's macroeconomic situation has also led to new developments in monetary policy and cross-border trade relations. The UK market currently anticipates that the Bank of England will tighten its monetary policy by approximately 30 basis points by the end of the year, bringing the total tightening to 90 basis points by the end of 2027. Several central bank officials, including Governor Andrew Bailey, have stated that they would be more willing to consider further interest rate adjustments if energy costs remain high and inflationary pressures exceed the target level. Furthermore, broader political shifts have supported the pound, particularly Prime Minister Andy Burnham's strong support for closer institutional and economic ties with the European Union. With the upcoming EU summit around November 20th and positive progress in discussions regarding future trade coordination, market confidence in the UK's long-term growth prospects has seen a temporary dip.

Technically, the GBP/USD pair remaining within a clear descending channel. After a brief rebound to the upper resistance level near 1.3303, selling pressure returned, pushing the spot price down to the 1.3201 area. The short-term outlook primarily points to a continuation of the downtrend, with an initial bearish target at 1.3180. A decisive break below this support level and a close below it would extend the decline to 1.3108, followed by resistance at 1.3044. Conversely, the 1.3303 level remains a key weakness point for the current downtrend. Momentum indicators across multiple timeframes strongly support the short-term bearish outlook. On the four-hour chart, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in negative territory, but the narrowing of the negative line suggests a possible short-term consolidation phase before the next wave of declines. Similarly, the hourly (H1) chart shows the pair reaching a corrective high near 1.3252 before falling to the support area at 1.3185, after which the selling momentum resumed. The Stochastic oscillator on the hourly (H1) chart has fallen sharply into oversold territory, indicating strong short-term selling pressure that could lead to a minor technical pullback or reversal. However, as long as prices remain confined below the key resistance levels at 1.3252 and 1.3303, the overall technical structure remains vulnerable to further declines.