FX.co ★ Traders economic calendar. Zeit: Morgen
Change in the price of goods purchased at BRC-member retail stores.
Leads the government-released consumer inflation data by about 10 days, but has a narrower scope as it only includes goods purchased from retailers who belong to the BRC. This data is usually released 1 day before the Bank of England interest rate decision. Full reports are only available to BRC subscribers.
A survey of the current state of the business sector in Australia . Based on a survey of hundreds of small and large sized companies, the National Australia Bank delivers monthly comprehensive quarterly reports.
This comprehensive survey primarily provides insight into the state of the Australian economy and puts forth leading indicators that signal its future direction. Thus the survey's findings, if unexpected, have the power to move markets directly.
The National Australia Bank releases both a monthly and quarterly report. The quarterly report is more comprehensive, surveying around 1000 small to large non-farm firms. The quarterly report provides greater detail on the data as well as a short to mid-term outlook of Australia . Because of seasonal volatility and government protections the survey only excludes the farm sector.
The headline inflation gauge for Australia. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Aussie Dollar, where each Dollar buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that is typically bought by a metropolitan Australian households. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Australian Dollars to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.
Unlike most other countries, Australia publishes CPI quarterly instead of monthly, increasing the market impact of the report upon release. The headline number is released as the percentage change from the previous quarter or year.
Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the most volatile 30% of items.
It helps expose the underlying inflation trend through component weighting and anomaly exclusion. The indicator compares the prices growth to the same quarter a yer ago.
This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously. There's a revised version of this indicator released about 10 days later, but it's not included for lack of significance. Source changed series from a diffusion index to a composite index as of Jun 2008.
Combined reading of 11 economic indicators related to employment, production, new orders, consumer confidence, housing, stock prices, money supply, and interest rate spreads.
The German group GfK uses this report to show the results of their survey on business consumer confidence in order to gauge the health of the German economy. It is a leading indicator of economic strength.
The ZEW-CS Indicator is calculated monthly by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in cooperation with Credit Suisse (CS). The indicator reflects the expectations of the surveyed financial market experts regarding the economic development in Switzerland on a six-month time horizon.
10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.
The value of orders placed for relatively long-lasting goods. Durable Goods are expected to last more than three years. Such products often require large investments and usually reflect optimism on the part of the buyer that their expenditure will be worthwhile.
Because orders for goods have large sway over the actual production, this figure serves as an excellent forecast of US output to come. Durable Goods are typically sensitive to economic changes. When consumers become sceptical about economic conditions, sales of durable goods are one of the first to be impacted since consumers can delay purchases of durable items, like cars and televisions, only spending money on necessities in times of economic hardship. Conversely, when consumer confidence is restored, orders for durable goods rebound quickly.
The actual inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate, such as jet fuel, as reported on a weekly basis. The numbers are watched closely by the energy markets, and if the results differ greatly from the expected inventory levels, the market can react strongly. The inventory data can be skewed by holidays and seasonal factors. Weekly data can be unreliable and should be viewed as a part of longer-term trends, so a four-week moving average may be more useful.
The main interest rates settled by the FOMC are responsible for driving inflation in accordance with the monetary policy adopted by the FED. One of the rates in mind is the overnight borrowing rate and the Federal Reserve’s Cash Rate Target (FRCRT). The latter affects interest rates for consumer loans, mortgages, bonds or others. The actual changes to the interest rates have a direct impact on the US dollar. However, the market expectation, in respect to future monetary policy, plays a part that is even more significant for the market. In such circumstances, any indirect information that provides hints to future FED monetary policy, and thus influences the market expectations in respect to the interest rates, may have a significant impact on the US currency. Typically, an increase of the interest rates, or expectations of such an increase, provide fundamental support to the US dollar. The lower interest rates may have a negative impact on the US currency.
The FOMC usually changes the statement slightly at each release. It's these changes that traders focus on. It's the primary tool the FOMC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their vote on interest rates and other policy measures, along with commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their votes. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes.
The press conference is about an hour long and has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create heavy market volatility. The FOMC conference is among the primary methods the Fed uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, along with commentary about economic conditions such as the future growth outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy.
A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.
Surpluses and Deficits
A positive Trade Balance (surplus) indicates that exports are greater than imports. When imports exceed exports, the country experiences a trade deficit. Because foreign goods are usually purchased using foreign currency, trade deficits usually reflect currency leaking out of the country. Such currency outflows may lead to a natural depreciation unless countered by comparable capital inflows (inflows in the form of investments, FDI - where foreigners investing in local equity, bond or real estates markets). At a bare minimum, deficits fundamentally weigh down the value of the currency.
Ramifications of Trade Balance on Markets
There are a number of factors that work to diminish the market impact of Trade Balance upon immediate release. The report is not very timely, coming some time after the reporting period. Developments in many of the figure's components are also typically anticipated well beforehand. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month or quarter, any significant changes in the Trade Balance should plausibly have already been felt during that period - and not during the release of data.
However, because of the overall significance of Trade Balance data in forecasting trends in the Forex Market, the release has historically been one of the most important reports out of the any country.
Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.
The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year.