FX.co ★ Global macro overview for 14/01/2019

Monday's trading session in the absence of important macro data and public appearances should stand in wait for important decisions: vote on the Brexit form in the British parliament, whether the issue of the debt limit and the process of negotiations on the USA-China line on commercial wars.

During the whole week in the US, the focus will be on assessing the condition of the economy at the turn of the year in the environment of market volatility, government shutdown and discussions on the Fed's policy. December readings for retail sales (avg) and industrial production are to be solid, provided that we receive them at all - a prolonged paralysis of public administration may postpone at least the first report. With more up-to-date data, like the NY Empire State Index and Philly Fed Index trends should record a rebound after weak results from the previous two months. The global investors see an asymmetry in data reception, because weaker data will fit into the current pro-risk sentiment, while better readings will be ignored until the Fed intends to react to them. In addition, the potential termination of the government shutdown will be an additional fuel reinforcing the risk appetite and weaken the USD.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market was not able to break out above the technical resistacne at the level of 95.81 and is consolidating the recent gains ater a rally. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 95.20 and due to the weak and negative momentum it might be visited very soon. The key technical resistnace is seen at the level of 96.03.