FX.co ★ Fundamental Analysis of NZDUSD for March 21, 2019

NZD firmed against USD after Fed's dovish comments about keeping the interest rate unchanged at 2.50% for the rest of 2019.

The kiwi's bullish movement continued amid positive economic reports. New Zealand's Current Account report showed an increase to -3.26B NZD from the previous figure of -6.18B NZD, while experts anticipated the reading to be -3.55B NZD. Moreover, today's GDP report met expectations as the index rose to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.3%. Meanwhile, the Card Spending is expected to decrease to 6.4% from the previous value of 6.9%. The positive economic data is going to raise the further NZD gains.

On the USD side, the pace of monthly reduction in Fed's holding of Treasury Bonds is to slow down. The dovish tone of the regulator greatly affected the US dollar. Thus, the American currency is going to remain weak in the coming days. Additionally, FED's balance sheet shrinking is also a part of adjusting to the global fluctuations, whereas the inflation is to decrease to 1.8%, while the forecast was 1.9%. The US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is due today. It is anticipated to indicate a rise to 4.6% from the previous negative value of -4.1%. The Unemployment Claims data is expected to be positive with a drop to 226k from the previous figure of 229k. The CB Leading Index is forecast to improve to 0.1% from the previous value of -0.1%. The Natural Gas Storage is to advance to -49B from the previous figure of -204B.

As for the current scenario, despite optimistic expectations regarding the upcoming economic reports, USD is going to keep on struggling as the FED's dovish statement has already affected the market sentiment. On the other side, NZD is supported by positive economic reports. Though certain volatility may be observed along the way, NZD is expected to remain strong in the long run.

Now, let us look at the technical view. The price is residing inside the corrective resistance range between 0.6900-50. From here, some bearish movement is anticipated as a retrace before pushing up higher in the coming days. The price has recently formed Bearish Divergence indicating an ongoing bearish pressure. While the price remains below 0.70, the bearish bias is to continue.