FX.co ★ EUR/USD 5 Star Sell Signal | Fundamental + Technical Analysis

Fundamental analysis:

EU GDP expanded by 0.4% in the first quarter beating estimates of 0.3%, showing that policy makers may have got it just right. President Mario Draghi indicated that the industrial sectors were going through a rough patch caused mainly by one-off factors such as disruptions in Germany's automotive sectors and trade tensions between US and China. Given the recent PMI data, it seems that the EU economy is picking up, with Italy, France, and EU PMI coming in ahead of estimates while Germany's PMI fell just slightly short of its estimates of 44.5, coming in at 44.4. Meanwhile, there is no sign that the labor market getting weaker: The region's unemployment rate fell to 7.7 percent in March from 7.8 percent in February, hitting the lowest level in more than ten years. These improvements, alongside rising wages, will continue to help the services sector, which is more dependent on domestic spending. This allows a reassessment of the decision to delay the first hike in interest rates to at least the start of 2020, boosting the currency.

Technical analysis:

We are looking to sell below major resistance at 1.2506 for a push down to major support at 1.1132.

Stop loss would be at 1.1279.