FX.co ★ Results of the meeting of OPEC in Abu Dhabi will have an impact on oil prices

Today, the focus of world markets will be the outcome of the two-day meeting of OPEC + in Abu Dhabi. The oil market actually froze in anticipation of the news, consolidating already for the whole week.

What will be the result of the meeting, while it is unequivocally difficult to say. The last two months, May and July, showed that the deal participants, while maintaining the current status quo in the "black gold" market, will not be able to reverse the situation. Despite the efforts of Saudi Arabia and general support for its actions on the part of Russia's major oil player, the pact concluded in December last year did not bring much expected results. Oil prices did not rise to the level of $ 60 per barrel, as the Saudis expected, but they did not fail to reach the level of $ 30 per barrel, stuck near the $ 50 mark for a barrel.

It seems to us that at the meeting an attempt will be made to force Libya and Nigeria, who are not participating in the deal, to limit their appetite for increasing the volume of crude oil production, which are superimposed on the active extraction of shale oil in the States, participants in the OPEC + deal. If this issue can be resolved, we can expect a local increase in crude oil prices, which can also be supported by data from the American Petroleum Institute, published today.

In the wake of this probable scenario, local exchange rates should also be strengthened locally. The Russian ruble will receive appreciable support and can continue the upward trend towards the US dollar. It is likely that the US dollar / ruble pair will fall to the level of 59.35. Limiting the ruble's growth can be attributed to the expectation of positive data on inflation in the US, which will come out by the end of this week and support the dollar, as this will be a strong signal to the markets that the Fed may decide on another increase in interest rates this year.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading below 1.1840. Perhaps it will remain in the range of 1.1725-1.1840 in anticipation of the publication of inflation data in the US, which will be released later this week. It can be assumed that if inflation in the United States resumes the ascent, this will undoubtedly lead to a further decline of the pair to 1.1725, and then to 1.1620, which is likely to try to grow to 1.1840.

The GBP/USD pair is consolidating above the level of 1.3015. Most likely, like the euro / dollar pair, it will resume falling on the wave of positive news from the US. Probably also its local growth to 1.3075, but the inability to overcome it will be the basis for a downward turn. After the fall of 1.3015, the pair will fall to 1.2950-55.