FX.co ★ Will a new Asian crisis begin?

EUR / USD, GBP / USD

As we expected yesterday, the moment of truth has come. The dollar began to buy out actively one hour before the release of US economic data. Sales of new homes in October increased from 645 thousand to 685 thousand while the decrease was expected to reach 627 thousand. The published figure was the largest since October 2007. US stock indices traded mixed with a slight change. The Dow Jones was at 0.1% while the S & P500 was at -0.04%. The future head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, confirmed his intention to maintain the current policy of raising rates and reducing the balance in his speech yesterday.

Today, the UK will publish the results of bank stress tests and a report on the financial stability of the Bank of England. This will be followed by comments from Mark Carney. English newspapers anxiously await the results of these tests with the main concerns on the banks of RBS and Barclays.

In the euro zone, the German consumer climate index for December will be released by GfK. The forecast for it is 10.8 against 10.7 earlier but the indicator may drown in the main events of the day. In the US, the commodity trade balance for October is expected to be a small decrease from -64.1 billion dollars to -65.0 billion. However, increased data in transportation means that the result may be better than the forecast. Wholesale stocks for October are expected to grow by 0.5% after 0.3% in September. The S & P / Case-Shiller house price index in 20 major cities for September is expected to increase from 5.9% to 6.0%. Consumer confidence in the US from the Conference Board for the current month may fall from 125.9 to 123.9 but the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Richmond could rise from 12 to 14.

Later, William Dudley will speak on the structure of the treasury market. After that, Jerome Powell will address the Senate Committee on Banking and Housing. If issues of monetary policy are affected, then it will only be about the confirmation of the intention to raise rates in accordance with the general line.

As a result, we are waiting for the euro at 1.1820 then at 1.1715. The reduction of the pound is possible in the range of 1.3185-1.3225.

AUD / USD

The Australian dollar fell 15 points following the fall of European currencies yesterday. In the commodity market, almost all assets fell: oil -1.3%, iron ore -1.0% (with Dalian -1.8%), coal -0.3%, and copper -0.9%. The Chinese stock market plummeted for the fourth session today with the Shanghai Composite losing 0.49%. If the Chinese authorities can not keep the market from panicking, it can spread to the European and American regions. The reason at first glance is not strong. The Chinese authorities decided to control the micro crediting and online lending market more strongly. However, the effect speaks about the neglect of the sector and the collapse of the market in the summer of 2015 was due to the mass exit of small investors losing money due to high margin lending. It's too early to talk about the next Asian crisis but there can be a corrective collapse. These risks open additional factors for strengthening in the US dollar in the medium term.

The closest targets for the "Australian" - ranges 0.7570 / 80 and 0.7330 / 40.