FX.co ★ The Congress continues to hold attention

EUR / USD, GBP / USD

Friday's trading started with investors cautiously selling the dollar on the news of the Senate delaying the adoption of the tax reform. The final estimate of the manufacturing PMI of the eurozone for November was increased from 60.0 to 60.1. British Manufacturing PMI showed growth to 58.2 in November from 56.6 in October. After lunch, fresh news arrived on the negotiation process of Brexit: Northern Ireland, which has threatened to break away from the British party, warned about the equality of both regions in the trade agreement. This had a stronger impact on the pound for the opposite direction.

In the US, ISM Manufacturing PMI released the November estimate which showed a decline from 58.7 to 58.2. The final estimate of Manufacturing PMI from the company Markit was raised from 53.8 to 53.9. Construction costs in October increased by 1.4 % against the forecast of 0.5%. The same economic picture was spoiled by Michael Flynn, a former adviser to Donald Trump, who promised to give the Trump investigative commission all the information about the negotiations with Russia. However, investors noticed that Flynn did not provide the any new information. As a result, the sensation has not yet happened despite the stock market still closing the day with a small minus.

Over the weekend, the US Senate adopted its own version of a tax reform. Now, there is an agreement with the House of Representatives. The final version will be submitted to the president for signature.

Today, the Eurogroup is meeting. Meanwhile, tomorrow, the Ecofin (ministers of economy and finance ministers) will talk about the final sum of "compensation" in Great Britain. On Thursday and Saturday, the meeting of the congress of the German SPD party headed by M.Schulz, will take place. It is here where it is possible to elect a new chairman which, according to rumors, might be Sigmar Gabriel.

Economic data is expected to be in the general favor of the US dollar. Today, the balance is expected to be neutral. The index of investor confidence in the eurozone from Sentix for the current month is projected to decline from 34.0 to 32.3 while the producer price index is expected to increase by 0.4%. In the UK, activity in the construction sector for November is expected to increase from 50.8 to 51.2. In the US, the volume of factory orders for October is expected to decline by 0.3% after the September growth of 1.4%. However, in the UK, PMI services can fall from 55.6 to 55.2. In the euro area, retail sales for October may contract by 0.6% while in November, the Services PMI may show growth. On Friday, in addition to the release of US labor data, Congress decided to raise the limit of public debt. As usual, this is a positive news for the dollar.

We are waiting for the euro to fall in the range of 1.1715 / 55 and the British pound to move in the range of 1.3300 / 30.

AUD / USD

Against the stoppage of growth of European currencies, the Australian dollar strengthened by 46 points. This is probably due to the strong growth of another commodity currency, the Canadian dollar, which gained 210 points due to strong economic data. The unemployment rate fell from 6.3% to 5.9% while GDP In September grew by 0.2% against expectations of 0.1%. Good growth was also in commodity markets. Oil added 1.57% while iron ore increased 2.27%. Also, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Australia in November jumped from 51.1 to 57.3. The Chinese Manufacturing PMI, which declined from 51.0 to 50.8 in the same month, had a limited impact on the market.

This morning, the results of Australian indicators were mixed. The gross profit of the companies for the 3rd quarter decreased by 0.2% against the expectation of growth of 0.2%. Commodity inventories of companies for November increased by 0.2% while the expected was 0.1%. The inflation indicator for November from MI added 0.2%. In general, the markets are experiencing little optimism. Most of the stock indexes of the Asia-Pacific region are growing. S & P / ASX200 added 0.07% while the Shanghai Composite increased by 0.12%. The AUD / USD pair opened with a downgrade. The same thing happened with other currencies. With this, it can be concluded that all the attention of Pacific investors are on US policy. Accordingly, we are waiting for the "Aussie" in the coming days in the range of 0.7530 / 50 and further to 0.7495.