FX.co ★ The last day of expectations does not give rise to growth

EUR / USD, GBP / USD

On Monday, trading on major currencies ended mainly unchanged with the euro and the Canadian dollar. In Italy, retail sales in October decreased by 1.0% against growth of 0.8% in September, versus the forecast of -0.1%. While in the United States, the vacancies in the labor market were slightly reduced except in the agricultural sector for the same month, showing its figures to fellows from 6.18 million to 6.0 million, against the expected 6.03 million. Also yesterday, the US Treasury posted 10-year government bonds for 20 billion dollars and a 3-year commitment of 24 billion dollars. For today, an auction is planned for 30-year securities worth $ 12 billion. Of course, before and after the day of responsible placement, Americans were trying to resist strong currency fluctuations. The British Prime Minister Theresa May, undoubtedly, that if the trade agreement with the EU was not concluded, there would be no compensation to be paid. However, the pound decreased by 44 points.

Today, the UK will have inflationary indicators for November. The basic CPI and the total CPI are projected to remain unchanged by 2.7% YoY and 3.0% YoY, respectively. The retail price index may rise from 4.0% YoY to 4.1% YoY, while the housing price index may fall from 5.4% YoY to 5.2% YoY. In the euro area, the ZEW business sentiment index for the current month is projected to decline from 30.9 to 30.2, and the ZEW index for Germany is expected to decrease from 18.7 to 17.9. In London at 7:00 in the evening, ECB head Mario Draghi will have a welcome speech only at the onset of the conference, which is two days before the regulator's meeting, he does not mention anything about his plans.

The US also publish some inflation indicators. The basic CPI for November is expected to grow by 0.2%, and the total CPI growth is 0.4%. The optimism index in small business for November is projected to increase to 104.6 from 103.8. At 7:00 PM London time, the report on the federal budget will be released, with a forecast of $ 135 billion. But a negative market reaction is not expected during the bond placement period and on the first day of the Fed meeting.

We are expecting the euro in the range of 1.1710 / 20, then in the range of 1.1650 / 65. Pound sterling is expected at the level of 1.3225.

AUD / USD

The Australian dollar is expecting for the Fed meeting with no less excitement, but yesterday the AUD grew by 18 points in the markets of raw materials markets. The American S & P500 yesterday added 0.32%, the Australian S & P / ASX 200 gained 0.06% and today it grows by 0.06%. Iron ore for Dalian went up by 1.0 % (in the US, raw materials decreased by 0.8%), copper increased by 1.5%, oil added about 2%.

But today is the situation is much worse. The Australian index of business confidence NAB in November fell from 9 to 6, the housing price index in the third quarter fell by 0.2% against the forecast of + 0.6%. The Chinese stock market resumed its fall and lose 0.57% today (Shanghai Composite). While China is seriously worried about the capital outflow in the US against the backdrop of the adoption of the lower corporate tax rate. Today, the S & P / ASX 200 is growing by 0.1%, but this is the only index in the Asia-Pacific Region showing growth. Perhaps, with this modest growth, Australian optimism will be limited.

In the coming days, we are expecting for the "Australian" in the target range of 0.7375 / 85.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.